And why most punters fail miserably, and how to find an everlasting supply of winners
Whether you’ve been backing horses for 40 days or 40 years, the one thing I can confidently predict is that you’ll know it’s never easy. Picking winners is a tough business and it’s taken me 20+ years to be able to find Proven and Consistent ways to do so, and even then, it’s still not always easy.
The Odds Are Always Against You!
It’s a Fact – this business is run for the ‘money men’ to keep on making them profits and it’s paid for largely by the punters, who, apart from a tiny percentage, just keep on losing, and will continue to do so.
Let’s face it, even when you think you are onto a good looking 5/2 shot in an 8-runner race, even if the selection has many of the boxes ticked in your favour, there’s still 7 other horses running against your horse.
Usually the 5/2 shot should certainly beat the 16/1 shot and the 25/1 shot, but the odds are still 5/1 against! And we’ve all seen a 10/1 or 12/1 shot that hasn’t been on the racecourse for over a year romp in turning over the Fav.
The Secret to Success is Knowledge
What I have put together over the years is a collection of Systems and Methods – They are not the ‘holy grail’ as it were, there is of course no such thing.
But, they most definitely are a collection of 100% Proven methods using a Systematic approach to finding regular and consistent winners.
If you really want to make your Racing pay, you need the definite edge
contained within these 100% Proven and unique Manuals.
Here’s the No.1 Reason Most Punters Will Keep Losing – And it’s Not What You Think
Believe it or not, in my opinion at least, the main reason punters lose and will continue to lose is because they have Unrealistic Expectations. Having unrealistic expectations when backing horses is the downfall on many a punter and will continue to be so.
If you put £500 into a Building Society on Jan 1st, how much will you have 12 months later? Maybe £530 if you are lucky.
So why it is that some people start with let’s say a £250 betting bank and expect to make £500+ a month? The fact is in this game, unless you are extremely selective, you will have more losers than winners and if your expectations are unrealistic, and most punters expectations are, you will keep on losing.
Why? – Unrealistic Expectations will usually result in the following: – (1) Too many bets, (2) Not getting Value and (3) Staking too much of your Betting Bank.
1. Too many bets will cause more losses because there will be horses that for one reason or another should not have been backed.
2. The lack of Value will reduce profit when you do win and it will usually mean that when a horse is a big price, although represents Value, many punters will dismiss the bet thinking due to the price the horse has no chance. This can and does serious reduce growth in any betting bank.
3. Staking too high a percentage of your betting bank means a bad run could wipe you out. If you are backing with 10% of your Bank for example, and you are not extremely selective, a run of placed and or losing horses will wipe out most betting banks.
There are of course plenty of reasons why the Big Bookies keep on winning and
Unrealistic Expectations will definitely help them continue to take advantage.
The truth is finding winners is tough, not all of the time of course (sometimes it can even feel easy), but finding a consistent stream of winners day in day out is far from an easy thing to do.
Racing is, as I have already eluded to, designed to make profits from those who run the sport, and we all know it’s not the punters who run it. Human nature itself is against us and usually the odds are too, so no wonder it’s so tough to make consistent profits backing horses.
And as the ‘Insanity’ quote from Albert Einstein goes…
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”
Now I’m not accusing anyone of being insane, but given how tough it already is to consistently find winners, it is surely madness to keep on backing in a hap- hazard manner without any proven strategic plan to stick to.
The solution, in part at least, is surely to learn as much as you can about why
horses win. Just like any other trade, specialism or hobby, you can’t expect to be good at it from day one.
Therefore, back in 2005 I decided to put into an easy to follow format my first Manual with lot of examples (proof) of how a systematic approach can often bring a good supply of winners.
Since then, as my knowledge has grown, the number of Systems, Methods and Manuals has also grown and some of these might well interest you and help you understand this game and more importantly enable you to find more winners more consistently.
Not including literally thousands of hours of my time, I have spent around
£30,000 in my pursuit of the Racing knowledge that I possess today. Through my Systems, Race Day meetings or Face-to-Face meetings you could discover every detail of that knowledge for yourself, and at a fraction of the cost too. That is of course, if you decide you want to learn all I have learned about finding winners.
If you’d like to know more about my work, over the last 10 years especially, I’ll happily post to you further information. You will not be added to any one else’s list. I’ll keep your details private and hopefully you’ll like what I have produced and find good use for the knowledge I have gained.
Neil Davies – Aida Racing
I hope you had a wonderful Christmas Day and it went as well as you wanted it to. Today there’s a whole lot of racing, some good, some not so good and some excellent. I have selected 10 System horses today which includes one Dutching races where two run in the same race. It could go either way but I am certainly hoping for a few winners and a profit on the day of course.
Best of luck if you are backing today.
2:30 No.7 Better Days (take 11/4+)
2:40 No.3 The New One (take 7/4+)
3:15 No.1 Cue Card (take 5/4+)
12:35 No.1 Bandsman (take 7/4+)
3:20 No.3 Helmsley Lad (take 6/4+)
12:40 No.11 Moorstown (take 3/1+)
1:50 No.5 Henri Parry Morgan (take 6/1+)
1:35 No.4 Poetic Force (take 4/1+)
1:35 No.3 Hochfield (take 9/4+)
3:45 No.4 Mythical Madness (take 3/1+)
On the shortest day of 2016, December 21st, the Both Barrels Racing System was close to invincible today at Ludlow.
There were 9 qualifying System horses (with no further examination) at the meeting and only 2 of those 9 horses finished out of the frame. That is a phenominal result by any ones standards.
There was a selection is all 7 races which resulted in 4 winners, 1 2nd place and 2 3rd places and 2 losers.
To level stakes, let’s say to £10 stakes, the system a Ludlow made a profit of £130.50!
As I am currently offering the Both Barrels for just £129, how much of an an absolute steal is that?
Any questions about this superb little winner finding system please feel free to ask.
The formidable Racing System is called The Both Barrels Racing System and it is without any doubt, superb, and worth it’s weight in gold for sure.
The headline actually refers to just one horse that has been selected no fewer than 5 times on the run by the Both Barrels, but first here’s why the horse has frustrated me a little.
Back on September the 5th I marked off a horse in the morning called Formidableopponent as the sole Both Barrels horse in the race and saw he was forecast at 10/1. For whatever reason I failed to back him and even worse, with hindsight, failed to put the horse up as a selection. Having refined my selection process somewhat now for the system, Formidableopponent was clearly a strong bet too.
Yes, the horse romped in by over 2 lengths, leaving me delighted for system owners who backed the horse and frustrated at myself breaking one of my own rules and no backing him.
That rule is this, Don’t get confused or swayed by the difference between Facts and Opinions. Facts are of course facts and the horse qualified strongly for the System. However, opinions put forward by the person who writes the Spotlight column for example, are only opinions.
Now maybe it was a subconscious thing after reading the information or maybe I just broke my rule, either way I missed out on an excellent winner. The selection was just over 13/1 on Betfair too.
But it gets worse… On the 16th of September Formidableopponent was running again at Hexham and was once again the sole Both Barrels System selection in the race. I thought after an ‘out of the blue’ win as first 10/1 odds may have suggested, I decided I wouldn’t back the horse again. He won by a nose at 5/1. The first two home were however 7 lengths clear of the 3rd horse to cross the line.
Then on the 30th of September, the horse’s third run at the course in the same month, he was again a Both Barrels selections. ‘Hmm, surely after winning by just a nose last time he’s not going to get the hat-trick, is here?’
Formidableopponent won again, at 5/1 again and by a 1/2 length and then 15 lengths to the 3rd horse. On the 8th of October, you’ve guessed it Formidableopponent was a Both Barrels selection again, and I recall thinking to myself, ‘very few horses win four times on the bounce, leave him out Neil’…
After a 6 length win at 9/4 I had to smile and realize once again that horse’s make idiots of us from time to time, and maybe me more often than many,
Yesterday at Ayr, the same horse was the sole selection for the very same System and sure enough he won again. This time at 5/2 and by 3 3/4 lengths.
If you do the maths, you’ll find that those five wins netted a total of +24.75 points profit to level stakes, all from one horse and all from one great system.
If you do not yet have a copy of this incredibly simple and logical system, that gives you the choice of how many bets you want to place, and you’d like more information just let me know. If I can help you, I will.
Thanks for reading
Neil – Aida Racing
On Monday of this week in the 4.10 at Yarmouth Hope Against Hope won at a massive 50/1 (almost 63/1 on Betfair, high of 990/1). Many people would have been asking ‘how’? maybe even ‘why’?.
Here’s why – Have you heard the saying ‘weight stops trains’? If it’s enough weight it will stop any train of course or virtually anything for that matter, including a racehorse. Inversely if a horse is carrying a little, or a lot, less weight than they are capable of carrying and still run to their full ability, then they could well have a solid chance of winning their respective race.
I was told several years ago now by a pro-backer that horses will run to 95% or more of their ability most of the time. We’ve all seen horses giving it their all and that’s not because they all want to win, but because there’s someone on their back urging them on. Horses are flight animals and when ridden correctly they will run and run and run, giving their all in as much as they can.
If the weight they are carrying is too much, as it were, then they will simply not be able to run as well as they are capable of doing. However, if the horse is carrying a weight that allows them to run to their ability then they should run well. Obviously there’s other factors that could prevent let’s say the ‘best’ horse in the race winning (taking into account ability and weight), but given a level playing field this line of reasoning works.
Hope Against Hope, the 50/1 winner, was one of two Both Barrels Racing System horses in the race, (they other lost at 16/1). It wasn’t exactly an emphatic win as she only won by 1/2 a length, that said she did do well to win after being shuffled back at one point too.
The Both Barrels Racing System has now proved itself over and over again. It is simple and yet highly effective when it comes to finding winners. I am going to do another print run soon (October) so if you’d like a copy get in touch before they run out again.
Thanks for reading
It’s been said many a time in this game, but finding winners is never easy, although it’s always easy after the race has been run to see what you should have done.
This post is about my systems in general, mainly the Aida’s Arrow System and the King Racing System and there’s also a sneak into what has to be the most prolific and ridiculously simple system I have been following that I have overlooked for years.
First off, I want to give you some results for today and this week for the King System, which has been doing rather well.
Today at Chester…
2.40 Viren’s Army Won at 12/1 (King System) beating the hot favourite and my first choice (foolishly) Linguistic.
3.10 Wicklow Brave 2nd at 4/1 (King System) was beaten by a neck, but William Buick had dropped his whip and the result could well have been a winner.
4.20 Captain Revelation at 25/1 (King System) was beaten into 2nd place by 3/4 of a length, and had he had a better draw could well have won. The winner had an great draw.
The only other selection was well beaten at 7/1. The winner was the strongest Aida’s Arrow horse of the day (Argent Knight at 3/1).
The King System is simple, very logical and like all of my systems has been well proven and will never stop finding winners. It can also be used with most Newspapers.
The Aida’s Arrow System, is however, still my No.1. It’s a full well rounded and absolutely proven system. The downside to it is that while Aida’s Arrow horses win a large precentage of races, there is almost always a choice of horses that qualify and it’s not always the stronger looking one that wins.
Today there’s been some good winners but one race I marked off in particular showed just how accurate it can be. I am talking about the 5.30 at Ascot where I marked off three horses, the strongest one won. Here’s the result which are the three that the system identified…
1st Argent Kinght 3/1
2nd Seaside Sizler 13/2
3rd Wordiness 25/1
I have seen this happen a lot and there was one earlier this week too. The Tricast in the above race paid £416.52! According the the AA System these were the three top horses and the winner was the strongest.
While racing can rarely be said to be predictable, many races do end up being run to form, i.e. all horses run to their true ability, and when this happens the AA system often comes up trumps.
Other Aida’s Arrow horses that won today include Happy Call at 5/1, Happy Hollow at 7/4, Viren’s Army at 12/1, Indira at 7/1, Dance King at 16/1
The beauty of the system is that you can be as selective as you want. If you only want to back the strongest horses then that’s what you look for. Alternatively if you want to back in several races a day you’ll almost always find qualifying horses.
Finally Both Barrels – This is a dual Racing System manual that I might be releasing in the near future. That said however I am not going to be keen to see it known far and wide and this is finding me a huge number of winners from very very little effort. I am not exaggerating when I saw it can often be prolific, and it works especially well in certain types of races too.
Some winners and placed horses today have come in at the following prices: – 5/1 Won, 7/4 Won, 7/1 2nd, 7/4 Won, 3/1 Won, 4/1 2nd, 5/2 Won and 11/4 Won.
Earlier this week I have found these winners using it…7/2, 12/1, 5/2, 3/1, 7/2, 7/2, 7/1, 10/1, 8/1, 5/1, 6/5, 10/11, 3/1, 7/4, 7/2, 9/4, 7/4, 5/2, 13/8, 6/1, 5/4, 11/4, 5/2, 10/3, 7/2, 11/10 & 3/1. (There was close placed horses too)
You might have guessed there can be a fair few selections but I certainly don’t back them all and it’s always handy to know a bit about the AA system too to find the more likely winners. But sometimes just keeping things simple is the most effective and as this method is so very quick and easy it’s something that is helping me tremendously.
Look out for more information on Both Barrels if it’s simplicity that you are after!
Finally, I wouldn’t want to leave out the Proven Profits Racing System which I know many of my long term clients have a copy of. There’s a fundamental principle with this system but three ways which a horse can qualify. However, the best bets are when I horse qualifies for two of the three or even three of three as one did yesterday and promptly romped in at 9/2.
This system does not find anywhere near as many selections as the Aida’s Arrow does, but that’s because the two a quite different in the way they work. I have one client who has been a customer for over 10 years now and he still says it is my best system.
Some Proven Profits Racing System winners this week include: – Happy Call 9/2, Kachy 5/2, Ice Slice 7/4, Loughalder 9/2, I’m In Charge 8/1, Gurkha Brave 11/10, Basford Ben 3/1, Scotswell 10/3, Ice Slice 5/2 and Rousayan 6/1.
If you want any further information on anything mentioned in the blog post just let me know.
Thanks for reading
I don’t mean to be harsh and at 1/5 I am far from daft enough to be backing Vautour, but it really did look to me like Ruby really could have helped the horse more than he appeared to do.
Maybe when you are such a good jockey, although not the best in my humble opinion by some way, and you are riding such amazingly talented animals, sometimes a little complacency can creep in even if it’s only on a subconscious level.
At 1/5 on however there must have been a whole lot of people with maybe a little more money than sense thinking they have just invested to make a certain 20% return in less than 10 minutes. But, as we all know there’s no certainties in this game. To hammer home the point though, why would anyone risk £5 to win a £1, or £50 to win £10, or £500 to win £100? And I’m sure there were people who no doubt risked and lost a lot more too.
Ok, enough about Ruby and my sole Strong Bet today didn’t win either. At 10/1, advised at 12’s however he did run a whole lot better than Ruby’s mount (sorry Ruby) and Henri Parry Morgan came in a valiant 2nd only beaten by a superb ride from Richard Johnson aboard the battling Native River who made virtually all.
Henri Parry Morgan was a very good bet for the FACTOR 10 System and while I din’t go each way, and with eight runners maybe with hindsight I should have, I was pleased that this amazingly simple but potent little system performed well yet again.
I am not in the office tomorrow, Grand National Day, so for what it’s worth I am backing Silviniaco Conti who should be around 10-12/1. The horse has the class to win for sure and Noel Fehily is an excellent jockey too, my concern apart from those big fences, being brought down or unseating his jockey through no fault of his own, is the distance.
But, if Silviniaco Conti can get the distance, I feel he can win the race. So that’s my tip and the only one for tomorrow.
Thanks for reading, good luck Silviniaco and Noel!
Yesterday started off very well when my top system came up with a good bet in Apple’s Jade who was backed in the 3/1 and romped in by a huge 41 lengths. It was a superb performance.
Cue Card made amends for his fall in the Gold Cup and Djakadam while travelling well had very little to offer at the business end and only finished in 3rd at 5/2. As expected the top three in the market did fight out the finish not that it was much of a fight however as the winner did win comfortably and it begs the question once again, would he have won the Gold Cup?
In the 4.40 Fayette County played up big time before the off, he reared and took a bit of a fall before the off! The horse did however appear to travel well enough and in the end he probably just wasn’t good enough.
My last selection La Bague Au Roi did lead four out but was soon ridden and finished only in 7th place which was disappointing. The 14/1 winner was however an AA (Backer’s Edge System) selection too.
1.40 No.8 Starchitect
This looks a very open event but this horse qualifies pretty well and with a trouble free passage he should be able to run a big race on form.
2.15 No.11 Limini
This looks tougher than the betting suggests but the price has drifted for this horse and she is just about my pick on form to date.
2.50 I have a Strong Bet in this race.
3.25 It’s very hard to see past Vautour and with a trouble free run he should win comfortably.
4.05 No.20 Minella Reception
This is probably the toughest race to call but if the horse runs as well as he has been doing he should run well.
4.40 I can’t find a stand out horse in this race.
5.15 No.1 Ballyandy
This horse just about edges it ahead of Battleford but there could be a surprise from a slightly less exposed runner and not a race I’d want to risk much on.
Best of luck if you are having a bet.
I have four bets today which fit in with three different systems for Aintree today. The prices are not great but a couple of winners from the four even one winner in one case could result in a profit. It’s far from easy however and if the Favourites all go in, which is always possible, the bookies will be hammered.
However, I feel in two races of the four there’s a little more value to had by avoiding the Favourites and as they both come out better for my top system I am going with them.
Aintree 2.15 No.9 Apple’s Jade – Result WON 3/1 (by 41 lengths)
This filly is up against the impressive Cheltenham winner Ivanovich Gorbatov who could be a class apart for his rivals, but the going is different today and I’d rather take a chance on my selection who comes out on top for me. Footpad was a selection for my at the festival but he ran under par there I thought and as my selection has beaten him before I’ll stick with my top horse.
Aintree 2.50 No.2 Djakadam – Result 3rd at 5/2 (Cue Card Won at 6/5)
If the Gold Cup is anything to go by this one and Cue Card should be fighting out the finish, but for more than one reason Djakadam looks slightly the most likely winner for me although this race really looks a tougher one to call between the top three in the market than most today.
Aintree 4.40 No.12 Fayette County – Result Lost 9/2 (Very unsettled before start but didn’t look good enough)
This one offers the best price from all four and while his form figures of FF4-P2 look a little worrying if the horse runs as well as last time out, bearing in mind the horse who beat him last time has won again, he really should be able to run a big race.
Aintree 5.15 No.8 La Bague Au Roi – Result Lost at 2/1 (14/1 winner was AA3)
This selection is a WOLCO System strong bet, the only Proven Profits System horse in the race and also qualifies well for my top AA System, so I am very hopeful she can continue her excellent form and keep her unbeaten record.
Best of luck if you are backing today
Neil Davies – Aida Racing
Having just watched the Timico Gold Cup at Cheltenham, I can’t help feeling that Cue Card blew what looked to be like a huge chance. While I was on the winner Don Cossack having preferred the big gelding to the Willie Mullins trained Djakadam, my heart was with Cue Card who was my other bet in the race.
Cue Card raced behind the leading four for most of the race and as the pressure increased and Smad Place dropped out of contention Cue Card looked for a way through and after the fourth last found it and moved ominously to the front. Then coming up to the third last fence it looked like he just didn’t come up for the jump, ploughed straight through it and his chance was gone.
Don Cossack after that looked in control and while Djakadam kept on trying to close the favourite had the race in his control and won by 4 1/2 lengths. There was a further 10 lengths back to Don Poli, also trained by Willie Mullins.
Why did I picked these two horses to put my money on? First off on rating Cue Card and Don Cossack came out on top with the winner being my strongest selection, and a much better price in the morning too. I was also encouraged by Cue Card’s three wins over the course, which can often be a very important factor especially on the top class courses.
While I think Channel 4’s The Morning Line has gone seriously downhill in recent years, at least where talking about the actual racing is concerned, I did catch Tom Segal (Pricewise) say that he felt Don Cossack had the best chance in the race. While he rarely tips short priced horses, Tom Segal is a shrewd judge and without any doubt he knows exactly what he is talking about. He’s very modest about it too.
In closing, it’s obviously impossible to know if Cue Card would have continued his solid run and beaten Don Cossack but there’s no doubt in my mind that he would have given the eventual winner a battle. Unfortunately we’ll never know if Colin Tizzard’s top horse would have lifted the Cup and next year at 11 years of age it’s less likely he’ll run as well, if he runs.
As I have said many times before, racing is a tough game and if you can’t take the downs along with the ups, you’d better get off the rollercoaster. For anyone wanting to learn more about racing and how Aida Racing could help you improve your strike rate, strategy and overall chances of coming out on top, give us a call.
Thanks for reading