Some people would say it’s a ‘dead cert’ especially at the 4/9 SP that Golden Horn went off at Yesterday in the Juddmonte International at York, but in a horse race are you really going to risk £90 just to win £40?

This punter certainly isn’t going to back at crazy prices like that and here’s why. While it’s fair to say Golden Horn under maybe more favourable conditions and a less tactical race would very likely have come out on top. But, and it’s a big BUT too, the nature of racing is such that we cannot possibly take into account what will happen in the race itself itself when we ponder which way to bet.

We can study all the form we can get our hands on but once there are ‘no more bets’ taken the rest is certainly somewhat up to chance, regardless of how good an odds-on shot might have been in the past, there’s no way we can know with any certainty what will happen once the stalls open and ‘they’re off!’.

Golden Horn had won on the Good to Soft going once before in his five victories prior to yesterday’s race, but the other four were on firmer going and this point alone, as far as I am concerned, was enough to suggest that the hot favourite was far from a banker bet.

Backing at Odds-on will win you less than your stake every time your horse wins, and when your horse loses you will lose all of your stake – How can this ever be a sensible thing to do?