This is a question most backers ask themselves from time to time especially when a horse is lower than the price expected. Here are my thoughts…

If you have read this BLOG previously you will know that I feel that ‘Value’ plays a big part in my calculations and if a horse is reducing in price there has to come a time when the horse can no longer said to be value for money.

That is to say that if a horse is 6/1 for example and you feel at that price the horse looks worthy of a bet all things considered. But if that horse’s price starts falling and you then see it at 3/1, then backing it at that price see you risking the same amount of money for potentially half of the reward you would have got at 6/1.

If you identify a horse that is forecast at 6/1 and you see it at a bigger price maybe on Betfair then it could well be worth taking the price, especially if the horse is a forecast favourite or second favourite.

Quite often on Betfair however especially several hours before the race there is not so much money in the pot (liquidity) and a horse that is forecast at 6/1 could be lower of Betfair, but that does not necessarily mean it has been backed.

Quite often on Betfair it is worth waiting until the price of your chosen selection(s) is at least a point bigger than the forecast price in The Racing Post or on the Racing Post website.

You may already know I am a bit fan of Betfair and the prices than can sometimes be obtained, if you haven’t read it already there’s another BLOG entry about Betfair that makes very interesting reading and could be the difference between a successful years betting and a cancelled Christmas!

You will sometimes see a horse forecast at 10/1 and when you check Betfair you can back it at 16/1, 18/1 sometimes 20/1 or more. In these circumstances you might as well take the price. Of course the price could get bigger but as the race approaches the price could also reduce significantly so on the whole an extra 6, 8 or 10 points is probably worth taking when you can.

You will sometimes see a horse forecast at 7/4 in the paper and then you can see it available at 3/1 or 7/2. For some people this will mean the horse is not worth backing as it is drifting out, but for me if you considered backing the horse at 7/4 then surely it is still worth back at more than twice the price. After all the horse doesn’t know his or her price is drifting.

In general if you can get a bigger price than forecast or a bigger price than you feel the horse should be it is probably wise to take it. On the flip side if a horse is being backed in below the price that looks to be value then it is probably not worth backing. Remember despite the hype that often comes with backed horses most strongly backer horses (sometimes called steamers) still lose.

My racing tip today is the the 2.00 at Haydock

No. 8 ‘Desert Myth’

Good luck