My apologies for being a little slow to add another entry, no real excuse I just haven’t been able to get into the habit, as per the odd school report – Neil must try harder.

The results so far this year have been very much like a Rollercoaster ride, some good periods and some decent winners and some poor periods too.

After a relatively poor start to January missing out with a few second and third places but then we had a good winner with ‘Our Vic’ at 20/1 on the 23^rd in a big handicap race which was an excellent result. This was followed on the Monday with another winning NAP at 3/1 with ‘Lord Singer’ and while the NAP lost on the Tuesday we also had another selection on the line in ‘General Tufto’ and this one won at 9/1.

On Thursday the 28^th we had second and third in the NAP race followed by ‘Qhilimar’ on the Friday at 100/30, a shorter price than forecast but a winner all the same. We then started February off with a second at 11/2 followed by a losing day but bouncing back with a 9/1 winner with ‘Sarah’s Art at Lingfield.

Unfortunately a poor period followed until ‘Trans Sonic’s’ win on Tuesday the 16^th at 4/1. The NAP lost the following day but the only other selection on the day ‘Orsippus’ won at 4/1. On Thursday the 18^th we had an excellent winner with ‘Sharajan’ at 16/1. ‘Exceed Power’ was the sole bet on the Friday and won at 2/1, not a great price but it was a tricky looking day.

This week the best result was ‘Kinkeel’ on Tuesday winning at 7/1 following only a third place by ‘Sapphire Prince’ the day before. Yesterday’s horses ran very disappointingly but not a bad month on the whole.

Today’s horses were ‘Bitter Honey’ and ‘Moonbalej’ and my info on the website/phone line was as follows: – ” ‘Moonbalej’ could have done better on his first run in Handicap company last time out and came in 2nd but will hopefully learn from that experience and go one better today. Forecast at 3/1 but is currently around 4/1 on Betfair. If the step up in distance and the fibresand suits, the top weight in the race ‘Bitter Honey’ should have the class to run well at a considerably bigger price.”

When I sat down to watch the race I could not believe that ‘Moonbalej’ had been backed down to 7/4, which seemed ridiculous to me after the horse’s last run and it would never have made it as a selection at that price. Horses should, in my opinion, be selected because they are worth backing at the particular price, a move from 4/1 to 7/4 may mean a big gamble but no more guarantees a win than at the 4/1 price earlier in the day.

As for ‘Bitter Honey’ the horse looked to be going well but soon weakened when called upon for an effort. My lesson there is that if there are two ‘ifs’ there is one too many. By that I mean I was relying on if the horse could step up in distance and if the horse could cope well with the Fibresand – so two if’s and almost certainly one too many.

Today’s Tips – If you feel a horse is worth backing at 5/1 for example but then the horse is backed in to 2/1, you have to ask yourself is it still worth backing at that price, the answer should probably be ‘No’. Also if you have two or more ‘if’s’ you probably have one too many.