The more time I spend studying, watching and enjoying racing the more I am convinced that backing short priced favourites is not a good strategy. The proof is actually in the news plenty often enough too. Is it? Of course it is, I believe I recall reading that William Hill was on to make a Billion this year and no doubt if they are doing well plenty of other bookmakers are doing well too.

Why is this evidence? Simple, bookmakers Lay horses to lose and the horse they want to lose is of course the favourite as that is where they stand to make most of their profits. So if backing short priced favourites was a good long term strategy bookmakers would be struggling like most other businesses at the present time.

I am not saying that all short priced favourites will get beaten, of course they won’t, a fair percentage of them will win and always will, but as a betting strategy if you are going to back at short prices it is advisable to be doubly sure the horse stands a solid chance.

Yesterday I went against the 3/1 favourite ‘Salpierre’, now that wasn’t a very short price, but in a 3 mile 2 furlong handicap hurdle it could be argued it was. I went with ‘Cross Kennon’ instead at 11/2 (8/1 when advised) but this one only managed 2nd place. At least I stood to gain almost twice the profit had the horse won.

Today my tips are as follows: –

Ffos Las 2.25 No.11 ‘Zakatal’ & 4.40 No.6 ‘Grand Vision’

Southwell 1.00 No.2 ‘Six Diamonds’

Warwick 3.25 No.5 ‘Silver Accord’

Good Luck

Neil Davies